Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 75405.542526 79680.145486 83957.646483 88556.097593 93356.597503 98217.029350 103506.975271
2025-04-06 68150.036611 74662.270135 81365.743748 88772.010970 96715.494181 104969.514178 114184.687299
2025-04-13 62783.562647 70792.309652 79222.903002 88739.020545 99161.205193 110208.108287 122781.767921
2025-04-20 59498.959944 68712.984325 78593.511919 89943.637952 102587.376084 116204.930950 131945.175067
2025-04-27 56842.560824 67035.685120 78144.031356 91099.863023 105744.441308 121733.453996 140457.661961
2025-05-04 54254.121033 65218.628753 77344.249781 91681.760494 108101.557963 126247.898097 147745.697345
2025-05-11 51680.936515 63245.921141 76211.568983 91738.071528 109734.833671 129846.190299 153923.978618
2025-05-18 49513.964172 61612.222576 75349.013268 91992.864430 111499.187593 133519.928260 160137.198324
2025-05-25 47491.476073 60038.315769 74456.693582 92120.201924 113037.024333 136874.646010 165945.137922
2025-06-01 46217.758672 59282.853336 74462.785427 93246.972123 115700.527410 141508.848947 173234.808730
2025-06-08 44371.846237 57751.755834 73469.657376 93115.303970 116818.264703 144293.511479 178335.041751
2025-06-15 43470.282210 57325.937074 73764.362384 94495.153794 119715.301460 149168.478440 185914.594556
2025-06-22 42329.189166 56573.513823 73643.793658 95367.303266 122016.768004 153373.778189 192767.839296
2025-06-29 40887.486397 55392.131917 72951.631594 95502.041655 123398.082375 156468.586888 198303.128700
2025-07-06 39445.030685 54155.010598 72141.231882 95445.934748 124510.434609 159217.141739 203415.314327
2025-07-13 38725.074159 53808.197607 72416.202330 96718.970132 127248.505440 163940.297865 210943.064083
2025-07-20 38030.250455 53462.959619 72668.053478 97944.135593 129918.658255 168585.608399 218399.383463
2025-07-27 37102.735805 52779.038648 72458.909617 98560.957990 131812.201145 172272.644712 224691.605677
2025-08-03 35980.395702 51800.096099 71836.936926 98620.615732 132981.053092 175051.225808 229863.661926
2025-08-10 35006.995159 50986.329172 71399.190543 98890.778604 134397.692726 178129.614726 235413.523002
2025-08-17 34025.557665 50129.745002 70876.870271 99025.797756 135622.997785 180959.776104 240657.845476
2025-08-24 33527.244705 49909.423518 71175.706954 100220.474565 138206.013152 185506.080135 248079.829769
2025-08-31 32516.213483 48956.665751 70476.767943 100080.879253 139047.205503 187840.664319 252715.650683